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Article Title:
Arma Modelling And Forecasting Of Nigerian Inflationary Index From 1961 - 2019
by Nekabari Kinanee Nadum, Ndem Bassey Ndem, and Linus Paulica Edim

Abstract:
This paper shows the descriptive, prediction and the prescription of inflationary position in Nigeria using univariate annual time series data on inflation from 1961 to 2019, to model and forecast inflation rate with Box ? Jenkins ARMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the inflationary series are stationary at I(0). The model was further validated with the equation (?(B)xt = ?(B)?t and p > 0.05) with statistical significant, autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times and standard error bound. The effect of inflation within the time was rightly specified in their magnitude and dimension. Finally, five (5) years forecast was made, which showed an average increment of about 2.4% between 2019 and 2024 with the highest inflationary index being estimated as 13.10 in the year 2024. The following recommendation among others are made to avoid the plague of double digit inflation for a proper manageable single digit inflationary rate in Nigeria against persistence records we have in the document analysis, 1. That CBN should improve on the monetary policy particularly price stability and stabilizes the economy through sales of treasuring bills, certificates and other money market instruments to cushion money flow and stock in the system.

Keywords: ARMA, Forecasting, Inflation Modelling, Index and Nigeria

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